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2015 January

Narrow Thinking Signals…

“I just received the following note from one of our Inner Circle members.  Below the note is my response.”

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You want to see a sign of narrow thinking?

Obama made a remark directed at Putin (indirectly)…

I told you before, Putin is NOT stupid, and the Russians are NOT someone to mess around with, but just like the incredible GAFFE by Obama on his “I won both of mine…” he has now thrust us into another cold war, only this time, it’s not going to be funny…

Putin will MAKE OBAMA PAY for those remarks, mark my words.

Instead of Obama modeling the solution, remaining empathetic and offering a fig leaf, he threw down a gauntlet and will now UNDO everything that has been achieved since the wall came down.

The LEGACY of Obama will be smeared with foreign policy gaffes, and I believe what will erupt will be WWIII, and we’ve seen the spark now.

YOU NEVER< NEVER put a bear in the corner, the only thing they know to do if fight.

We have single-handedly declared war on Russia through the leadership of sanctions which caused they economy to crumble.

THE ONLY THING that brought us out of a depression was a WAR…

Do you think that is an isolated circumstance?

Or is WAR FOOTING a tool that can be used to resolve depression?

If so, we are in trouble because RUSSIA IS IN DEPRESSION, and the oil “business” has helped trigger the problems.

I expect the ARCTIC to be a battleground as well as eastern Europe, all fought by proxy…
Top News

War Is Exploding Anew in Ukraine; Rebels Vow More

By RICK LYMAN and ANDREW E. KRAMER

Evidence is increasing that Russian troops and Russian equipment have been pouring into eastern Ukraine again

What choice do they have?

And who narrowed the choice?

Through lack of experience (a foreign policy team that doesn’t know what it’s doing) and OBAMA’s ego position.

You wanted interesting?

You got it!

********************

Mike’s response”

Here’s the quote:

Second, we are demonstrating the power of American strength and diplomacy. We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small by opposing Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.
(APPLAUSE)
Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, as we were reinforcing our presence with the frontline states, Mr. Putin’s aggression, it was suggested, was a masterful display of strategy and strength. That’s what I heard from some folks. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.
That’s how America leads: not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve.

———

THIS WAS A BAD MOVE, and shows lack of empathy for the Russian people in general, about 10 million or so are Russians on the USA, or more.

In developmental coaching, I call this modeling the problem, here’s why:

When someone models their “reasoning”…contained within that are the problems of the next or more complex levels…

So I call it modeling the problem which can be solved at a different level…

In this case, Obama and our country is making a huge error that will come back to haunt us all and the world…

it’s just a matter of time…

If Obama thinks Putin is not “so masterful” then the WORST thing he could have done…is embarrass him in front of 37.1 million watching the speech and the billion they will affect…

SUPER STRATEGIC ERROR…that shows Obama’s ego position…

8 replies on “Narrow Thinking Signals…”

“Obama made a remark directed at Putin (indirectly)…

I told you before, Putin is NOT stupid, and the Russians are NOT someone to mess around with, but just like the incredible GAFFE by Obama on his “I won both of mine…” he has now thrust us into another cold war, only this time, it’s not going to be funny…

Putin will MAKE OBAMA PAY for those remarks, mark my words.”

@Vengeance and stupidity

Some folks make the mistaken assumption that high vengeance &/or red energy expresses ONLY in short-term thinking and immediate repercussion (e.g., looks like stupidity). Not so. Revenge CAN and WILL BE exacted by a higher-capability player at a much later date and “opportunistically” when the offender is in a weakened position. Up until that moment, the offender presumed s/he was safe, partly by design.

The best defense with that sort of mind is to feed the bear, not poke him (or her), even unintentionally (hard to say whether Obama’s comment was actually aimed at Putin although easy to see Putin interpret it as such). The more your win and the bear’s win is aligned, the safer you are. That might mean some compromises in the short term that seem contrary to the established value system.
I know little about politics. I know a lot about how vengeance works.

Alicia Parr

Mike,

I have never seen such direct warning as you’ve written here.
” I believe what will erupt will be WWIII, and we’ve seen the spark now.”

I would appreciate any more you could say about that statement.
I won’t hold you to it, but I and probably many others would like any additional background thoughts.

(Written from Berlin with a New Zealand passport!)

Best…..
Mo

Which the archduke of Ferdinand (which sticks in my mind for reasons I won’t share) was assassinated…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria

It was a seemingly innocent act that had nothing to do with anything…but is now seen as the “event” which started the first World War…

to be honest, I don’t know why wars, or even world wars start…

more than likely it is a factor of tipping point, so what is a prelude to a world war is also in question…

my thoughts are this:

we are right in the midst of a paradigm shift which FEW realize…

second, we are right in the middle of a long wave disruption where money and credit have become out of balance…

when is the last time there was a recession in asia?

because of the paradigm shift, I believe we are reaching a prelude (we must) to a number of tipping points, where people are going to be forced to realize that things are not what they were, or what they seem…call it PUCA (alliteration designed)…Perception uncertain, ,volatile and ambiguous…

more than likely, a world war, or global war…is largely predicated on some lack of equilibrium in the system…

we already have entered a global currency war…few realize it…

people (including me) don’t understand currency wars…where what it seems is not what is happening due to problems with adjustments made in currency…take Germany for instance, in the wheel barrow days of the Weimar republic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

long story short, the reason I put a stake in the ground, is that we won’t know for YEARS what causes the next global conflict…

but humans are funny beings…

when people starting getting arrogant and that is the only thing that I can think to describe the underlying tone in the state of the union…intended or not…they get silly, and we have gotten silly…

right now, Russia is on the verge of an all out (albeit indirect) offensive on eastern Ukraine to solidify it’s connection (land) with crimea…

an interesting footnote in Friedman’s expose the other day on the fact that Russia won’t do this, but there is no better time (paraphrased)…

I believe that Russia may open several fronts that are advantageous to its future…

the arctic and the conflict with Ukraine…oil and food…

while Russia continues to dwindle in population and is faced with everything that Europe is faced with, an immigration of Islamic citizens who are not capable of assimilation, the clock is ticking…

we pushed and keep pushing Russia into a corner, all the while remaining arrogantly ignorant about how it has all happened…

now, the best minds in the world are supposed inside the beltway and I’m sure they have intel and means which those of us only peering into the world could never imagine, but it seems that no one can predict what is going to happen and much less be very good at it…

thus, I believe my chances–sans means–are about as good as their’s because history always determines what emerged and possibilities for why…a rear view mirror…

does anyone here actually think that Russia will cower…?

NO ONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONQUER RUSSIA EVER…

and while we are not directly attacking Russian ground…we are indirectly creating a war footing with Russia again…

sure it will be proxy war…but what I see happening, is a convergence of macro and micro events that could possibly lead to people taking sides…in strange ways…

Europe will not fight in Ukraine, not only don’t they have the money, but I see how we have dropped in US Army trainers…

I don’t now how many of you have studied much about system dynamics and escalation loops…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_archetype (Scroll down to escalation loops) after enjoying the short intro on system dynamics!

the usa has had multiple opportunities to starve the escalation loop, but we are “stupidly” involved in fueling it…

our energy miracle has produced an arrogance in those short sighted and narrow minded ego positions which don’t understand a basic tenet…what goes round, comes round…

everyone of us in the USA should be ENORMOUSLY grateful for our natural resources…something which we did NOT create but were lucky enough to be sitting on…and it saved our ass from a depression…

yet…for some reason, we have people taking credit for what happened as if they were the reason why what happened has happened…

instead of being gracious, and thankful and empathetic, we have become boisterous, arrogant and stupid…

what goes round, comes round…

we escaped the guillotine in 2008-10, largely because of an energy miracle (that I described would pour trillions into our economy) and lessen the outflows of trillions at the same time, with NO BEHAVIORAL CHANGE REQUIRED…and that is the key…

we did NOT change our behavior…

therefore the problems that existed, still exist, but they have been mitigated and “iced over” like a building in manila…or any developed world country…smear icing to cover up the structural flaws…and make it look good, but don’t do anything to address structural issues…

global wars, proxy or otherwise, are structural resets…

the reason directly that I indicated that we may have witnessed what will later become known as the prelude to global war…is that WE HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO ELEVATE OUR STEAD IN THE WORLD with a quantum leap to “de-escalate” the escalating loop…and our leadership failed us…

this doesn’t mean we are anyone’s patsy…

or it doesn’t mean we have to cower in fear…

but what we had the opportunity to do, and let it slip through our hands…and what is clear to me, is that we have an ESCALATING LOOP in progress structurally that will start to destabilize the structural base of the old paradigm…

the paradigm to replace it is MUCH MORE DANGEROUS< hence the problems of the level creating the problems overwhelming the ability of the system to solve them, either creating regression, or progression and often both... but one caveat... ORDINARILY, we would say progression... HOWEVER, what is clear to me, is that what is required for progression MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE given the complexity of reasoning required, and the corresponding ego position, languaging, subjectivity, and task performance required to satisfice the structural requirements of complex skills... UP UNTIL NOW, most everyone has (with scaffolding) been able to stand on the shoulders of the past generation, and most of this was oblique capability, requiring "some" vertical (mostly provided by system scaffolding) and mostly horizontal skill development, knowledge working... WHAT will be required in the future is more vertical than horizontal because it requires metacognition, not just cognition... WHILE metacognition can be scaffolded and we can get a lot of bang for the buck quickly with great benefit, the kinds of problems we are creating in the global conditions space require "in general" much more vertical capability. NOW, this doesn't seem like a big deal until you understand the caveat... NOT EVERYONE, and for that matter, FEW will make the leap, the momentous leap...with serious scaffolding from AI, augmentive system (AS)...and vertical leadership... I SAW NO EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL LEADERSHIP in the state of the union... now, this doesn't doom us, but it brings about a caution... IF we can't progress, then what is the likely way in which we will try to solve VUCA problems we don't understand? REGRESSION to the point where conditions become matched with capability... IN THIS PROCESS of the shifting of paradigms, and running slap dab into the wall of verticality...I suggest to you, that people, governments, and regions will devolve...to try to solve the problems that are now coalescing at our doorsteps... Without this vertical barrier--again this is my assumption--and the means by which to scale this (it will take time to create smart enough systems to scaffold more complex behavior for the masses, there will be a period of time, where the old paradigm rules under regression reign. It is during this transition period that I believe a global war will spring up and how that is going to emerge will likely be a "contagion" among the havenots...in revolution against the haves... we are seeing that now, in ISIL...as they figuratively model the low-resourced havenots in battle with the haves... while it appears the USA is now on the way to healing (which is like the "iced over" third world buildings that adorn modern life here...the structural issues are covered over... somehow people forgot that interest on our mounting debt would crater the budget even though we enjoy the attention of the world... http://www.usdebtclock.org/ (check out this resource)…!

so while our leaders divert our attention away from “Structural issues” and fuel an escalation loop, the happy sheeple continue to muse and enjoy the “tide in the affairs of wo/men”…

the clock is ticking…

mike

Mike, I would like to use this to expose more people to some of what goes on in the Inner Circle. Is that OK?

And, of course if you say OK, then this might be something others can use to send/direct others to, to give them a sampling of what goes on in the Inner Circle of @F-L-O-W.

I will have the new membership page ready by Monday morning. [Sorry for such a long delay, John P.]

Gary

Gary,

For some reason I don’t know how to access the atFLOW yahoo page.
Do I need a yahoo email address so I can access it or and/or create a password?

John

John, at the bottom of each of the group emails is a link titled “Visit Your Group”. Click on that and then near the top right is the sign in link, “Sign In”. Just click on that and then enter your sign in details. If you do not an account then you will need to create one. Put any name and birth date. Just remember your username and password The rest you may make up.

Gary

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